The Lok Sabha elections have finally come to an end. Drawing curtains on all speculations and predictions, Narendra Modi led BJP has assumed power in the central government. This did not come much as a surprise. The bourgeois media had already indicated through their various surveys and exit polls that the BJP was most likely to form the government. But the manner in which BJP got absolute majority single-handedly was probably not expected by anyone. Election is such a platform of political struggle where each class cannot avoid but is compelled to participate in their own way. Bourgeois democratic elections are of course of paramount importance for the ruling classes, since through these elections they decide in a concrete manner the course as to how they will rule in the coming days. People too, in their own way participate in elections, and in their capacity try to change their lives, their futures. Elections thus, to an extent, also reflect their mood. But when the exploited classes are not organized as a class, the exploited people participate in elections as individuals under the dominant influence of bourgeois thought. Hence, the elections not only reflect how the ruling classes along with other sections of the bourgeoisie are influencing the country’s politics, in a very limited sense they also reflect the aspirations of the downtrodden. We need to analyze the overall results of the elections not for nourishing any fancy dream of the future, but for understanding the trend of politics of the country, which to an extent will enable us to shape our future course of action.
The first thing that we should bear in mind while analyzing the results of the elections is that for us it is unnecessary to perform a rigorous and minute analysis to explain the defeat or victory of any party or candidate like the bourgeois psephologists. This is because as mentioned earlier, the concerns or opinions of the exploited classes are reflected only in a limited sense and never in its entirety or true sense through bourgeois elections. It is generally true that no elections under bourgeois democracy can in the real sense reflect the independent opinion of the working class or the toiling masses, particularly when large majority of the working and toiling masses are not conscious about their class interests. In a backward country like ours, where bourgeois democracy has not fully flourished, where rigging and rampant fraud in elections is commonplace, there, a considerable section of the masses are either deprived of their right to cast votes or else they are forced to vote according to the dictum of local lords of the society. Additionally, the parties bribe to buy votes. Even in developed bourgeois democracies the bourgeoisie influence and cheat the masses through their media and other means. But the most important fact is when the vast majority of the working class is not conscious about their class interest, when the revolutionary party of the working class is non-existent ― the independent opinion of the working class can never be reflected in a political struggle like election. Under such a situation, not only the toiling masses, even a large majority of the working class cast their votes under the influence of bourgeois politics and bourgeois consciousness. Hence, the actual dynamics of the different classes, which do not manifest consciously during such times, cannot be understood merely from the results of elections. It is possible to form some idea regarding the mood and condition of the toiling masses from the election results only if they are analyzed in conjunction with the ongoing processes within the working class and the toiling masses, prior to and irrespective of the elections.
Well before the elections, we all became aware that a significant characteristic of this election was marked by the active support of the big bourgeois camp towards Modi and the BJP. In the recent times we have not witnessed similar incidents in any of the previous elections of our country. For the last few years the big bourgeoisie are going through a crisis-ridden situation. In their attempt to tide over the crisis, they are unleashing yet another terrible attack on the toiling masses so that the burden of the crisis can be passed onto the masses. For this job they need a strong administrator like Modi. They are hopeful that Modi will be able to successfully unleash this attack with the direct assistance of a fascist force like the Sangh Parivar. They think that Modi will be able to ignore the resistance within and outside the parliament and successfully carry out this job. For this reason they had shamelessly, openly and directly campaigned for Modi’s prime ministerial position. The news media under their control had relentlessly carried out similar efforts. It is also heard that they have spent a huge amount of money for BJP. In the present situation, where the class struggle is extremely weak it is expected that such concerted effort of the big bourgeois would be successful, and that is exactly what has happened.
Of the different sections of the society, the upwardly mobile petty bourgeois were most significantly influenced by this campaign of the big bourgeoisie, since they enjoyed a share of the cream of globalization and liberalization. It will perhaps not be wrong to say that their lifestyle have undergone a revolutionary change during the last twenty-twenty two years of globalization-liberalization. A large majority of this section was extremely dissatisfied with the Congress or the UPA. They believed that policy paralysis of the Congress or UPA was squarely responsible for the present dismal situation of India’s economics. Additionally, increasing corruption, criminalization, and particularly the insecurity of women created substantial dissent among the middle class. The role of Congress and the UPA government with regard to the above also created considerable anguish among them. A majority of this section strongly supported Modi and BJP in this election. Probably they saw in Modi a strong administrator, who is capable of handling these problems from above, and that provided an important reason for their attraction towards Modi.
In response to the euphoria of the media following BJP’s win in this election, some of the critics have pointed out that despite the attempt of the media to label this victory as historic and huge, it remains a fact that BJP has secured a mere 31% of the total votes. Moreover, their presence in the entire southern India is still very poor. It is true that that they have made significant advances in the north-eastern and eastern India compared to their previous performances. Yet, as of now, in this region too, except Bihar, Jharkhand and Assam, it is difficult to identify them as a significant force. This of course is an important aspect. Nevertheless it is also true that in many states of India BJP has made noteworthy inroads in this election. BJP has got huge majority in Gujarat and the entire Hindi-speaking India. They have emerged as a very significant force in Maharashtra. In many states they have obtained nearly 50% or more votes. Barring Punjab their vote share has increased everywhere in India and quite substantially in many areas. Nearly 12% increase in vote share throughout India cannot be ignored. People belonging to the Muslim community have generally voted against BJP, which of course is obvious given the role of Narendra Modi in the 2002 genocide in Gujarat and the aggressive Hindu politics of the BJP. In that case, it would have been impossible for BJP to increase its vote share by this amount unless a large section of the poor toiling masses belonging to the non-Muslim communities voted for BJP. The question is why did the poor toiling masses vote for BJP? The Congress had in fact taken some relief measures like the food security bill. Why were they unable to attract the poor people with these measures? The bitter experience of the erstwhile BJP and NDA government is also perhaps live in the minds of common people. Out of the disgust towards that government the common people voted the Congress to power in two successive terms. Has that experience been wiped out of the minds of the poor people?
The campaign of the news media and the strong and vocal support of the middle class have big roles in shaping the present attraction of the poor people towards BJP. We have generally witnessed that when the poor toiling masses are not aware about their real interests, when they are not organized separately, then the thoughts of the so-called educated upper strata of the society have significant impact on them. It is natural to expect the same this time. But this alone does not explain this swing among the people. Actually, the measures of globalization liberalization that the Congress government had adopted (though they were inadequate compared to the demands of the big bourgeois), amidst few measures of relief, have manifold times increased the daily problems of the poor people. Only a small part of the relief measures of the government could actually percolate down to the poor people after crossing the hurdles of corruption and governmental callousness. The benefits of these small reliefs have been far superseded by the problems of price rise and unemployment during this period. The reason behind this is the policy of the ruling class. Now, since in this phase Congress government implemented this policy of the ruling class, the underdeveloped mass assumed that the Congress government is responsible for price rise and increase in other problems of their lives. Hence, quite naturally, the dissent that accumulated within the common people due to the ever increasing problems associated with their livelihood, manifested as anti-Congress votes in the elections.
Here, we need to understand one aspect in further detail. We are all aware as to how a continuous, incessant and intense attack is being unleashed onto the workers-peasants and the toiling masses in this era of globalization liberalization. The erstwhile benefits and rights are being withdrawn and permanent jobs are replaced by temporary, casual, unsecured jobs. Price rise is a regular affair which is either wiping out the benefit of minor increase in wages or reducing the actual wage. Nowadays, opportunity to work is reducing drastically in the rural areas. In cities too it is very difficult to get any job. Most importantly, inequality has increased a manifold time which is disgruntling the poor toiling masses every moment. Who all are unleashing this attack? Of course the ruling big bourgeois class of India. However, for the unconscious, backward masses the role of the class is masked by the party and the government. In this phase different parties have formed governments in the centre and the states, but all of them have let loose similar attacks after forming the government. Nowhere have the poor people been able to resist these attacks, because of the betrayal of those who had once stood at the forefront of workers and peasants struggles. They have left the workers and peasants and joined hands with the enemy camp. This experience has created two tendencies within the workers, peasants and the poor people. On one hand, not only has this experience made them critical about all the political parties but has also alienated them and made them immensely hostile against the parties. Within the workers and at times within the fighting section of other people this same trend has manifested in a different way. This trend has led the workers to dissociate them from the old reformist-revisionist parties and build up their struggle and organization under their own leadership. Nevertheless, this trend has in effect crystallized within a very small section of the workers and that too at the level of their factory based struggle. This is the first trend which in a nutshell is the trend to dissociate from the old parties and the trend to get independently organized. But when the issue is to act in a political struggle like the election, then the toiling people cannot think of independently standing against all the political parties. Not only the backward toiling common people but even those who are fighting and organizing separately at the factory level cannot at present think of such action. This is natural because it is possible to dissociate from the established parties and fight against them in a political struggle like an election, only when the poor toiling masses are organized under the influence or leadership of a political party, which stands distinctively in opposition to the politics of these parties, with its own politics. We all know that such a party does not exist at present. Hence when the poor working people participate in a larger political action like the election, then due to their dissent they stand in favour of one party against another. That is due to the desperate urge to solve their own problems they are finally submitting or are being forced to surrender to the existing parties. This signifies that although the toiling masses are disillusioned about the political parties and in spite of the fact that some questions regarding parliamentary democracy are coming up unconsciously in their minds, in the final analysis they are yet to be disillusioned with parliamentary democracy. It is absurd to expect anything more in the absence of a working class party, in this low ebb of class struggle. The attempt to cling on to the established parties by surrendering to them in elections, despite increasing alienation from them is apparently self contradictory, but both these are aspects of a phenomenon that is going on due to the same dynamics presently active in the society. The process involves the continuously increasing attacks of globalization liberalization by the ruling class and the betrayal of the old parties, which have alienated the working class and the poor masses from all the old parties and have pushed them towards a new party. Pushed them to form and get organised under a real working class party. This process is not complete since they have not yet formed and organized themselves under the leadership of a real working class party. For this reason the above indicated apparently self contradictory phenomenon is taking place. Hence, from the election results there is no reason to assume that the trend to alienate from the old parties has ceased or have taken a different turn. The working class is in the transition from breaking the old to building the new and in this transitory phase the above two trends are being manifested in the contradictory manner described earlier. Only through further development of the working class struggle and through the formation of a working class party can this contradiction be resolved wherein the working class along with the toiling masses will be able to participate in the political struggle of the election by assuming an independent position from the old political parties.
In this election too, the people have expressed their ferment by replacing the Congress party by the BJP. Due to the backwardness, the support towards BJP may have some reflection of a positive hope for a better future, but that is likely to be the secondary reason. The failure to resist the attack of the ruling class by their organized class struggle has led the working class along with the backward toiling masses to desperately attempt to survive by changing government ― this probably is the primary reason for their support towards BJP. For this reason, however magnanimous the support of the common people towards BJP might appear, it is not grounded strongly on any ideological or political foundation, and is essentially of a volatile character.
BJP fought this election primarily on the agenda of development, keeping aside their slogan of aggressive hindutva. They probably adopted this strategy to satisfy the demands of the big bourgeois and to attract the middle class towards them. This is definitely their mere electoral tactics. It would be foolish to assume that they have withdrawn from their communal path of organizing the Hindu people on the basis of aggressive hindutva slogan, or to instigate riots as and when they want, or even to actively participate in creating communal riots, or to attack and terrorize people belonging to different minority religious communities. A glaring example in favour of this is evident from how the BJP had used aggressive hindutva to create communal divisions in some areas in an attempt to win elections. This is not merely the issue of some hardliner leaders. In and around Mujaffarnagar and in several adjoining areas in Western UP, BJP has carried out this activity in an organized manner. However, in the context of the entire country, this particular role of BJP for winning elections was no doubt minor in this election.
From the perspective of current election result, two more significant aspects demand attention. Firstly, for approximately last 20/25 years, the politics of Uttar Pradesh & and Bihar remained dominated by the problem of caste-division, of the oppression of the lower castes by the so-called upper-castes. Hence, during this whole phase, the politics of these two states have been controlled by the political leaders like Mulayam-Mayawati-Lallu-Nitish and the parties led by them which had emerged on the basis of caste agenda. During this period, both the Congress and the BJP were sidelined to a certain extent in these states. Significantly, this time in both the states BJP has won with a huge mandate. In UP it has earned nearly 90% of the seats – out of the 80 seats, they have won in 71 and Apna Dal, its electoral ally has won in 2 seats. In Bihar, they have earned more than 50% seats – 21 out of 40; Lok Janshakti Party of Ram Vilas Paswan has won in 6 seats and Rashtriya Lok Samta Party in 3 – both of them allied with BJP. In UP, BSP of Mayawati has drawn blank and in Bihar, JD (U) of Nitish Kumar has been able to garner only 2 seats. Does it imply that the important role that division into castes played in determining the politics in these two states all these years is nearing its end? Most probably, it is still too early to reach such a conclusion. Innumerable incidents of caste oppression happening everyday makes it amply clear to us that caste oppression is still a living phenomenon in our country and it cannot be uprooted until and unless democratic revolution is completed in this country. However, may be this result only reflects that the way the dalits and other oppressed castes have so long depended and trusted on these parties for an end to the discrimination and oppression going on over them that is now on the wane. They are now no more able to rely on these parties and are in the process of becoming disillusioned about these parties to an extent. It may also happen that as because they are part of the toiling masses, the fundamental economic problems of their lives are appearing as more important to them and the caste agenda is going to the back bench. As a result the influence of these parties is sliding downwards. However, even for affirmation of any such assumptions, we need to wait and watch the political trends of these states in the coming days.
Secondly, the support-base of the left parties has reduced further in this election. In West Bengal, they have been able to secure only 2 seats. Such a result has never happened since 1978. We don’t know whether it had happened earlier or not. Even though, in West Bengal, disgruntlement among the masses about the Trinamool Congress has increased, their vote share has increased not only from 2009 parliamentary election, but also marginally from 2011 Assembly election. Even the Congress, in its utterly disastrous phase, has been able to increase its vote share from 2011 Assembly election, however marginal it may be. On the other hand, the vote share of Left Front has reduced not only from 2009, but also from 2011 – since 2011 it has lost its vote share 9.58%. At the other end, vote share of BJP has increased to 12.9%. So, BJP has gained primarily courtesy Left Front. What’s the reason behind it?
In the past, CPI (M) as well as the Left Front had won the election on the basis of their mass support built up by way of their leadership in struggles of the working class and peasantry. However, as a consequence of remaining in power, their betrayal of the working class and toiling masses, the open serving of the interests of the exploiting classes, utter high-handedness of the party, etc there have already been an erosion of their mass base from inside since a long time. It means since long they were not getting the support of the masses on the strength of their ideology and politics. Even though their vote share had started to fall long back, they were still being able to hold on to their vote-share to a large extent primarily due to the reason that they were in power in the government. But once they were routed out from power, they fell face down from the pedestal. The hollowness of their mass-base has been exposed and they are now in the process of extinction.
Observing such a dismal performance of Left Front in this election, a section of “Left” intelligentsia is lamenting it as a “fall of leftism”. But the question is, can we say this as the true fall of “Leftism”? Certainly not. At the fag end of sixties of the last century, a massive struggle of the working class and peasantry with a revolutionary potential had emerged in India, particularly in West Bengal. At that time, betraying with those struggles these so-called left parties had been successful to channelise and contain those struggles within the political arena of the formation of government within this system. Since then the fall of “Leftism” had begun. Not only in our country, the process of degeneration of the pseudo-left parties continued all over the world. Due to the betrayal of the old established Communist Parties across the globe, international working class movement is passing through a long phase of devastating defeat. In our country also, struggles of working class and peasantry have receded, the workers and peasants have become dispersed and leftism has also become weakened. And more and more the betrayal of these parties have continually isolated them from the workers, peasants and toiling masses The dismal performance of these left parties in this election is the culmination of this process. These parties have discarded leftism long ago. So, through the defeats in this election, no further “fall of Leftism” has been revealed. Moreover, if we dig deeper, we would understand that the root of this “fall” lies within the word “Leftism” itself. We must remember that the word “Leftism” had originated from within the arena of bourgeoisie parliamentary democracy and had always been used to designate the opposing forces to the established rule within that arena. Hence, rejuvenation of “Leftism” can never be the task of the communist revolutionaries. Their aim is the rejuvenation of the class struggle of the working class, of the revolutionary struggles of the working class and peasantry for the purpose of revolutionary change of society. And, it is not possible for these parties or any of its modified editions to carry on this task. It can only and will only be done by the working class themselves through its struggles. If any section of the intelligentsia truly aspires for regeneration of leftist ideology, they will have to completely alienate themselves from the reformist-revisionist politics of Left Front, and accept the politics of the revolutionary change of society, i.e. the politics of class struggle. Not only that, they will have to go to that class that is able to revive the revolutionary politics, the working class, and integrate with them.
This victory of BJP under the leadership of Modi brings the signal of an impending danger to the working class and toiling masses. First of all, Modi and BJP have come to power with the strong backing of the big bourgeois. So to serve their interest, it has no other option but to impose an intense and devastating attack on the masses. Already, the representatives of the big capitalists have handed over their prescriptions of economic policies. The demands that they have already brought forward in subtle, diplomatic language in essence are: giving an unhindered free hand for foreign investment, further relaxation in taxes for desi-videshi capitalists, further withdrawal of subsidies from petroleum and different other sectors, to do away with all the legal restrictions in the way of loot and exploitation of natural resources like coal and iron, further reforms in the labour laws so that the policy of “hire & fire” can be implemented without any hindrance, the curtailment of environmental restrictions so that it cannot be a hindrance to investment and profit, reforms in the land acquisition policy, development of infrastructure and privatisation of ports etc., etc. The implementation of these measures means price rise will further sky-rocket, the little rights that still exist for the workers will be eliminated, and thousands of more peasants will be expropriated from the land. After all these measures if the economy is revived to some extent, some jobs may be created. Though those jobs will be on contractual basis, with poor wages and without any rights. And, if the economy is not revived, job opportunity will further be diminished, unemployment will soar. It is evident from the open placing of the demands of the big bourgeois class that the BJP government under the leadership of Modi is compelled to implement all these attacks and they would not be permitted much time to do this. While all these attacks would enhance the problems of the masses, at the same time, it would also enhance their tendency to resist these attacks. The contradiction between the government and the masses will be further aggravated.
Secondly, the impending danger that the toiling masses face is that by the very fact of BJP’s accession to power, the aggressive, violent hindutva forces will become powerful. Already in Pune, cadres of Hindu Rashtra Sena have killed a person of Muslim community. In the coming days, oppression on the population of religious minorities is going to aggravate, communal division will be increased. This division will act against the process of development of struggling unity of the toiling masses. More importantly, BJP is backed by the fascist Sangh Parivar, the tentacles of which are spread all over the country and which has a strong organised cadre base. BJP government, under the diktats of the big bourgeoisie, will have no other option but to unleash the attacks on the livelihood of the workers-peasants and toiling masses and in consequence, social turbulence may increase. Under such a circumstance, this possibility cannot be denied that the ruling class may utilise the forces of Sangh Parivar and proceed towards imposing fascism to tear apart and stifle this turbulence.
So, it is implied that the rise of BJP under the leadership of Modi is ringing the alarm bell of impending attacks on the livelihood of the working class and toiling masses as well as on the right to organise and struggle. But the question is who will resist them? The opposition of the established parliamentary parties within the arena of parliamentary politics though unsuccessful this time, may in a different situation become successful in halting BJP from coming to power. But through that neither have they been able to restrict the influence of the rightist ideology and politics on the masses, nor will they be able in future. This is so because these so-called secular bourgeoisie and petty-bourgeoisie parties are unable to counter the politics of Sangh Parivar as they themselves utilise religious-communal divisions in many ways, even though they do not practice aggressive hindutva politics. Since the majority population in this country are of hindu community, the politics of these parties also carry with them significant hindu influence. Though they oppose the fascist ideology of Sangh Parivar, they are incapable to confront it in real terms, because they themselves act against democracy, whatever their auspicious declarations may be. Hence, we see that at different occasions, almost all regional & petty-bourgeoisie parties had allied with BJP for the sake of sharing power in the government. Whenever they have opposed BJP that also were done by them in their interests of remaining in power. The revisionist-reformist parties also are not in a position to resist the politics of BJP. On the other hand, it is the betrayal and unprincipled existence of these revisionist-reformist parties that has finally strengthened the rightist ideology in the society.
There is only one force in the society that can save the society from the danger of the attack of BJP-Sangh Parivar, and it is none other than the working class. It is no dogma, but a truth based on reality. It is true that most, even among the majority of the communist revolutionaries, have lost faith in the power of the working class seeing their present disarrayed and disorganised state. Hence, we find that on different occasions, many among the communist revolutionaries swayed towards the different camps of the parliamentarian parties. Working class is the only force because they are the biggest prey of the attack of the globalisation. So they have no other option but to confront the attacks of globalisation. Different sections of the petty-bourgeoisie are also vacillating in this regard, as because a significant section of them has benefited by the policies of globalisation. At the other end, the concerted attacks of the big bourgeoisie are pushing the working class every moment to be united among themselves, so that a united struggle can develop. Since the nature of the attack on the working class is generally similar in nature across the country, it is only natural that there would be an objective tendency among the struggling workers to be united & in reality it is possible also to be united. However, the same is not possible by the rural poor masses by their own initiative. In addition, it is also to be noted that objectively the working class is the force who is only capable to build up an effective resistance, as because in their hands lay the key to significant sections of the production system of the country. Of course all these are objective possibilities, not today’s reality. This possibility will be translated into reality only when the working class, by throwing away the shackles of defeat & in consequence the state of disarray, will turn around with its own glory, will be organised at the national level against the attacks of the ruling classes and will organise the whole of the toiling sections of the society. Today’s workers would thus be transformed to the working class through the process of class struggle.
In this election, BJP under the leadership of Modi has emerged in accordance to the planning of the big bourgeoisie. In a way, it is a war cry of the big capitalists against the working class and the whole of the toiling masses. To tell it more categorically, it is the pronouncement to aggravate the war which is already going on. Not only that, through it the big bourgeoisie have helped to consolidate the reactionary, extremely rightist forces of the society for their own class interest. It is a danger signal not only for the working class and toiling masses including peasantry, but also for the toiling sections of the dalits and all minority communities. It is a danger signal for all progressive masses, in totality, for all progress. It is true that today the working class is not in position to give a befitting reply to the war that has been declared against them, but we have that confidence on them that in the coming days, they will definitely be able. In fact, it is the bourgeoisie who itself are forcing the working class to stand up and resist through by increasing their attacks. Working class has already begun its journey towards attaining the organised, united position through some very small, preliminary steps, albeit falteringly. The future of the whole of the toiling masses of India lie on the question whether the working class will be able or not to advance this journey overcoming all the adversities and to build up a true resistance against the big capitalists by uniting the toiling masses. As a Communist Revolutionary, our task at present is to apply our outmost efforts in accordance with our limited abilities to help the working class in this to rise up and be organised towards this journey. And with that aim, the advanced section of the working class and other toiling masses are to be made class conscious so that they can play their role in this activity to help the working class to become organised.
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