MODI AND THE INDIAN BIG BOURGEOISIE CAMP
For the last few months, the atmosphere of politics, we must add, of bourgeois parliamentary politics is becoming intense and hotter day by day. As the time of parliamentary election has arrived, the struggle between the big bourgeois parliamentary parties, especially between the two big parties, BJP and Congress is becoming bitter and ugly. Congress is definitely on the back-foot. A series of scams, starting from the corruptions during the last Commonwealth Games held at New Delhi to the recent Coalgate have severely dented its popularity, as well as its election prospects. Moreover, their problems have been accentuated by the hard fact that the so-called "spectacular growth story of India" is now in shambles, not showing any significant sign of recovery, and UPA government has been held responsible for this mess by various sections of the bourgeois society. Prices of commodities, including the essential ones, shot up to enormous heights and are affecting varied sections of people, especially the poorer sections, who have been hurt most. BJP, on the other hand, is on the upper hand especially after resolving its internal rivalry for the candidature of prime ministership in favour of Narendra Modi, ring leader of Gujarat genocide and has started a blistering campaign against UPA government and Congress party. The incidents of corruptions of ministers of UPA government and of the leading functionaries of the ruling alliance and severe price rise are, definitely, their main weapons, but they are also conjuring up some imaginary Gujarat model of development, to cover up, to mask the ugly Hindu communal, fascist face of Sangh Parivar, which is best represented by their present prime ministerial candidate, Narendra Modi. The December assembly elections have exposed the cornered condition of the Congress party and raised the enthusiasm of BJP, to whom formation of a NDA government at the centre is now almost certain. However, the assembly election of last December, precisely, the assembly election of Delhi, has also thrown in a new party in the electoral arena, in the form of Aam Aadmi Party or AAP. To describe the rise of AAP as spectacular will be an understatement. Nobody even dreamed that this one-year old party, majority of whose leaders were totally unknown to the general public even a few months back, will be able to upset the applecart of the big parties and form government in this small but quite important state. There are also innumerable regional smaller parties or parties with regional influence like CPI, CPI(M), DMK, AIADMK, SP, JD(U), BSP et cetera, who are trying to cobble up a third front in the hope that they will be able to call the shots if neither of two main alliances get comfortable majority in the hustling. In the coming months, balance of power of the parties in this electoral battle may change, many new actors may enter this stage, the main characters may get switched in terms of importance, some characters who are now unimportant may become cynosure of all eyes, but there are some processes or some facts latent in this drama which will not change, which are of fundamental importance especially to the working class and toiling masses of this country. We shall try to deliberate on those facts, try to expose those things which are latent in this ugly drama of the parliamentary political parties.
Behind the scene actors
Such ugly bickering, competitions between the parliamentary parties are visible before every election. As, with each passing years, the elections are becoming devoid of fight of policies, the political fight between the parties cannot be otherwise. However, there is one crucial difference in the present election. To put it straight, the way in which the major sections of ruling big bourgeoisie, if not all, has rallied behind Modi, and are trying to make him the next prime minister of the country, is something which we have not seen before. In previous elections, especially in last twenty years or so, we have not seen the big bourgeoisie to support any party or combination in particular because they were sure that any party or combinations, including the so-called left, will follow diktats of Globalisation-Liberalisation and so whoever comes to power the policies will remain same. In this respect, this election is different -- the majority of the bourgeoisie is actively aiding the cause of Modi and NDA. Certainly, questions will be raised among our readers. Many of whom may also be provoked to brush off our statement as mere imagination. But, before they do that, we shall request them to allow us to substantiate our statement with some facts.
Just a few days before BJP named Modi as their Prime Ministerial candidate, one of the leading media houses published the report of a survey conducted among the corporate big-wigs of India. The report stated that, "Almost three-fourths of 100 honchos polled in the 'ET CEO Confidence Survey' want Modi as PM. Rahul Gandhi is way behind ? just 7% back him. India Inc's leaders are sending two clear and separate messages ? one on national leadership and another on politics. The first is this: After a long policy drought, CEOs are impatient for strong leadership, intent, decisions and action." (The Times of India, September, 6, 2013; italics ours). We would like to draw attention to the italicized portion of the quote that the Indian big bourgeoisie is "impatient for strong leadership" "after a long policy drought". Just after the announcement by BJP, the same newspaper published another report titled "India Inc welcomes Narendra Modi's nomination as BJP's prime ministerial candidate" where the support to the candidature of Modi was elaborated with extensive statements from leading bourgeoisie (http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-09-14/news/42062471_1_gujarat-model-development-model-narendra-modi). In fact after that the chorus for Modi was joined by foreign institutions like CLSA, Goldman Sachs, Nomura, which represent the interests of imperialist capital. CLSA managing director was forthright in their support to Modi and stated that "Indian markets are going up because Narendra Modi is going into national elections. Whether people get this right or wrong, there's a sentiment about it. Corporate India expects investment-driven growth to government's prioritising various forms of rural benefit schemes. The opinion poll suggests that 90% of Indian corporates prefer the Opposition party". (http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-11-20/news/44285088_1_narendra-modi-indian-markets-economic-growth; italics ours).
Are the corporate houses are just sitting idle and expressing their support to Modi? Another news report explained that a section of big bourgeoisie is actively organising forces in favour of Modi. The report stated "Having openly endorsed the 'Modi for PM' campaign, the corporate sector is now going all-out to secure the Gujarat chief minister's victory in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Leading industrialists based in Maharasthra are said to be particularly keen that the BJP-Shiv Sena combine returns to power in this important state. Pro-Modi industrialists want Thackeray cousins to unite." (Rediff.com, November 06, 2013).
In fact in the above mentioned report of Times Of India which was published just after the announcement of Modi's candidature, the report detailed the "India Inc's love affair with Modi" and narrated the lavish praises which were heaped on Modi by Ambani brothers, Anand Mahindra of Mahindra & Mahindra and others. The report also reminded the readers that Sunil Mittal of Bharti Airtel (and the younger Ambani brother which the report did not state) were first to endorse Modi as Prime Minister, way back in 2009, when even BJP itself was not contemplating that. A report sent by American agents working in India to their masters stated, "Anil Ambani and Mittal announced that Modi would make an excellent prime minister. Not normally known for openly endorsing political candidates, they helped boost the national profile of Modi, a polarizing figure for his role in the 2002 Gujarat communal riots." (Source: https://www.wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/09NEWDELHI129_a.html.) That cry has become louder with each passing day and has become a roar, a roar not by the people, but by the big bourgeoisie.
Why this support to Modi?
In the last mentioned collection of reports, one important point was raised. It pointed out that "The full-throated endorsement of Modi by five top Indian businessmen of India is highly unusual because Indian big business houses rarely align so publicly with one party or individual for fear of retribution. Smart big business generally maintains linkages with all major political parties and donates agnostically to cover all bases." However the report avoided a concrete answer to the question and just stated "Clearly these business leaders felt strongly enough to bend their own rules for someone who is a rising star in the BJP." Though the report was made way back, the point is relevant even today, to be precise, more relevant today. We should get an answer to the question -- why the majority of big bourgeoisie are rallying behind Narendra Modi?
We have observed in past few years that the big bourgeoisie in general were becoming more and more critical of the UPA-2 Government. The big bourgeoisie media was united in criticizing the Government for its policy paralysis. They at some point of time were even ridiculing Monmohan Singh as weak. Even foreign media joined in this chorus. Time magazine termed him as ?underachiever' and it stated that Singh appears "unwilling to stick his neck out" on reforms that will put the country back on growth path. These comments by the media and even some of the leading, powerful members of big bourgeoisie camp and also of imperialist camp were significant considering the fact that the Prime Minister of India was once their darling for his role in initiation of so called ?economic reforms' in India. Actually it reflected the restlessness, discontent, worriedness of the big bourgeoisie. The reasons are as follows.
The world financical crisis of 2008 did not affect the economy of India in a big way. However, as time progressed, gradually its effects have also become prominent. The annual growth rate of GDP, which once crossed 9% mark, came below 5% and is not showing significant sign of recovery in the near future. Fiscal deficit increased tremendously. The growth rate of manufacturing sector not only decreased but went negative. The reasons are few including the economic recession of advanced capitalist countries and contraction of domestic market. Current account deficit is gradually increasing in such big manner that balance of payment crisis is looming. The big bourgeoisie were managing current account deficit mainly by increased flow of foreign capital which is not happening. Due to these reasons, the big bourgeoisie are going through a critical period. From the beginning of 2011, they were becoming restless and were demanding some economic measures from the Central Government. It was apparent from the statements of different sections of big bourgeoisie, represented by their organisations like FICCI, CII, ASSOCHAM et cetera, that the big bourgeoisie were demanding ?extension of the price decontrol mechanism to diesel and other oil products' which effectively means withdrawal of subsidies, extensive benefits to be given to the private sector to bring in FDI in large quantities, at least ?pushing through with FDI policy reforms in areas where action is possible outside the ambit of Parliament', gradually annul the already weakened labour laws, to stop passing the Land Acquisition Bill because acquiring land for industry will be difficult and incur much more cost, announcement of ?immediate moratorium on any additional expenses on doles' etc. There were other demands like expediting the Goods and Services Tax (GST), providing fiscal stimulus across sectors etc. In short the big bourgeoisie were demanding that the burden of crisis should be transferred upon the working class and toiling masses and withdrawing the meagre benefits given to the people, the Government should provide more and more money and other concessions to the big bourgeoisie so that they can be able to overcome this period successfully.
However, the UPA government led by Manmohan Singh could not satisfy the big bourgeoisie sufficiently on these counts. The Government indeed had taken some steps but neither those steps were sufficient nor it could yield satisfactory results in terms of recovery of economy. The ineffectivity of the UPA government in alleviating their problems has generated an animosity amongst a significant section of big bourgeoisie against the UPA Government and obviously against the Congress party. This has also helped the cry for Modi as Prime Minister to get louder. They want Modi as the Prime Minister because Modi fits their bill as a tough administator. Remember the comment of the report we had cited earlier. "After a long policy drought, CEOs are impatient for strong leadership, intent, decisions and action." Even after committing a heinous crime like the 2002 Gujarat genocide he was able to continue in power for 12 long years and is still continuing in the face of tremendous opposition from within and from without. Not only that, he also became a darling of capitalists by providing congenial atmosphere for the capitalists in Gujarat. This is the reson for which the major sections of big bourgeoisie is rooting for Modi because they are hoping that if Modi be put in power, backed by the fascist, authoritarian force of Sangh Parivar, BJP under his leadership will be able to take the harsh measures they are long demanding.
Congress : on the horns of a dilemma
One may ask, "Why the Congress could not satisfy the bourgeoisie? Has it shed its big bourgeosie class character and become a pro-poor party?". Definitely it is not the fact -- we must answer in the negative. Then the next question which will follow should be like this -- "if the Congress is still a big bourgeoisie party, then why it is not wholly taking the measures as requested or demanded by the major sections of the big bourgeoisie?".
The antipathy of the big bourgeoisie is clearly visible from the exhortations of big bourgeois organisations and the media controlled by them. However, we can only surmise the reasons behind that. It seems that the Congress is now on the horns of a dilemma. Let us explain.
The Congress came to power in 2004 riding a wave of discontentment among the masses generated due to the harsh, bitter measures of second generation of reforms undertaken during the NDA government under Vajpayee. No doubt the economy grew at a faster pace and paved the way for further growth, but naturally it also increased the disparity among the upper and lower sections in a great manner. One may remember that in the election of 2004, the contradiction between India and Bharat came into sharp focus. The UPA government came into power with a slogan of "reforms with a human face". The UPA government continued the measures of "reforms" initiated by the NDA Government but also tried to take some measures to mask the growing disparities among the rich and poor. The UPA-1 Government tried to restore some of the relief measures which were withdrawn during the early years of New Economic Policy. Prominent among these measures was NREGA, more popularly known as ?100 days work'. It may be stressed that by following this path of "reforms with a human face" the UPA did not act against the interest of the big bourgeoisie, rather they served the long term interest of the big bourgeoisie. It was necessary because the bitter, harsh, drastic attacks on the livelihoods of poor people was generating hatred against the government, which may have disturbed the whole system. So, in the interest of the system itself, the poor people had to be given some crumbs so that they remain satisfied within the system and did not revolt against it. The big bourgeoisie was not worried because due to high growth achieved during this period, it was possible for the economy to throw some breadcrumbs to the poor. The UPA Government benefitted from this policy and got themselves re-elected in 2009. However, the situation was beginning to change from that period due to the Global economic crisis, of course which was not discernible at that time. As the crisis gradually extended its reach to India and started to affect Indian economy, the present economic problems of the bourgeoisie began to unveil. Export market squeezed, domestic market also got affected, trade deficit began to widen, current account deficit increased, but foreign capital flow did not increase proportionately, rather decreased in some years, etc. Actually, it will be naive to say that the Global economic crisis was the only reason of this downfall. From the very beginning this growth was vulnerable because it happened on a narrow base of capitalism due to the unresolved democratic revolution of India. The global economic crisis accentuated its downfall, which was waiting to happen. From that period, the big bourgeoisie started to demand for some steps which basically meant a ruthless attack on the masses.
This put the Congress party in a dilemma. It meant for them to change the course they were following till then. Either they had to start a ruthless attack on the masses and satisfy the immediate interest of the capitalists. They were hesitating to take this course thinking about the possible repercussions of the masses and which will make their return to power difficult. However, ignoring the needs of bourgeois economy was not possible for them, because they represent the interests of the big bourgeoisie. The condition of the Congress can be aptly described by the famous Sanskrit proverb, "na jojou, na tosthou". The policy paralysis was nothing but an expression of this state of affairs and the reason for antipathy of the big bourgeoisie towards the Congress party. It also signifies a contradiction between the immediate and long standing interest of the big bourgeoisie
Is the storm brewing in the horizon?
Whatever be the outcome of parliamentary election being held now in April-May, it can be more or less surely predicted that the attacks on the livelihood of toiling people will increase manifold. Due to some exceptional condition it may be withheld for some period of time, but the economic situation of the country is such that the big bourgeoisie cannot but intensify the attack of Globalisation and Liberalisation in a big way. During last one or two years, the big bourgeois parties, specially, the Congress, as it was in power in this period was cautious in their approach because the election was round the corner. After the election, whoever comes to power, the incumbent party will be freer to launch the attack long asked by the big bourgeoisie. We may see further withdrawal of subsidies from several sectors like petroleum, electricity which in turn will increase the prices of petro-products like diesel, LPG, etc, further relaxations of FDI norms so that for FDI can be flown in, rupee may be devalued further, labour laws may be diluted further, attack of globalisation and liberalistion may get intensified in agricultural sector affecting millions of peasants of rural India. It will happen whoever comes to power be it NDA led by Modi or the Congress led UPA alliance, because both the alliances are here to serve the interests of the big bourgeoisie. The unity of interests of Congress and BJP is being kept in secrecy from the masses by the apparent struggle between them.
However, the way in which the capitalists are rooting for Modi as Prime Minister, itself indicates a ominous sign. The reason for selecting Modi as their candidate is clear - this section of big bourgeoisie want Modi for his record in Gujarat, where he as an ?ironman' has shown his strength and will by remaining in power even after intense opposition for his role in the Gujarat massacre. The big bourgeoisie need such a strongman, who will be able to go forward with their agenda undaunted, who has the backing of fascist organisations like the Sangh Parivar, who will be able to crush any opposition from toiling masses. It is not that the big bourgeoisie is thinking of abandoning the parliamentary system through which they have ruled this country for more than six decades successfully. However, if the crisis, which has pushed a considerable section of the big capitalists towards Modi, deepens further then there will be further push for autocratisation of the state machinery and curtailment of democratic rights of people in general or even fascisation of the country.
It may seem that at present the people are not posing any big danger for the planning of the big bourgeoisie. But in a way, this parliamentary system, side by side its role in serving the bourgeoisie, is also posing some problems for them. In their competition to hold on to power all parliamentary parties tend to take some ?populist' measures to win over the people whereas at the present moment due to the economic conditions the big bourgeoisie want these measures to be stopped and harsher measures to be undertaken. This is a contradiction which is getting aggravated and will further aggravate if the crisis deepens further. If the crisis deepens further, there will be possibility of unrest among the masses and fascist tendencies in the society will be boosted, specially in view of the strong presence, influence of Sangh Parivar on a sizeable section of masses and also their influence on the state machinery. These are the ominous signs which is evident from this cry for Modi as PM amongst a considerable section of big bourgeoisie. However, only this does not prove that the country is inevitably moving towards fascism, because there are numerous factors, like vastness of the country, presence of innumerable nationalities who also have contradictions with Hindi-Hindu domination, possible revolt of toiling masses etc.
Unrest from below?
We have till now described the way in which the big bourgeoisie are trying to control the political situation by their conspiracies from above. There is a certain amount of support for Modi from especially a section of middle class who are frustrated by a host of problems like corruption, criminalization of politics and society in general and other numerous civic poblems and who, as they do not have the power to rise up and solve their own problems, always thinks that some imaginary benevolent dictator only can remove these filths from society, can free the society from this mess. However, in all probability, this section is not very large as generally there also exists a general distrust against all political parties. It can be said with fair amount of correctness that Modi is not riding any wave of support from the masses, let alone any movement in his favour. What is going on is basically a conspiracy hatched by the big bourgeoisie from above to put somebody in power so that their interests can be served best. However, there is another current going on below within the masses beneath the apparent tranquility, apparent subservience and servility of the masses towards the big bourgoisie political parties. The rise of AAP is a clear manifestation of this phenomenon.
The way in which a one year old party, comprising of some activists, many of whom quite inexperienced in parliamentary politics, came to power in Delhi is phenomenal. Nobody believed that such a thing would happen even during the elections, let alone when Arvind Kejriwal and some other activists broke away from Anna Hazare's movement to start a political party called Aam Aadmi Party. Aam Aadmi Party was successful in winning away a sizeable section of voters not only from the Congress, but also from the BJP. No doubt, the main base of Aam Aadmi Party is the upper layer of middle class, who have been benefitted by the two decades of New Economic Policy. This section of people has progressed economically a lot, but they are aggrieved by the corruption of whole system, specially of the political leaders and of the administration. They are also aggrieved by the various civic problems including the criminalisation of society and nexus between the administration and political parties with the criminal world. They have a strong antipathy towards all the established bourgeois and petty-bourgeois political parties because these parties, they feel, are responsible for this whole mess. Aam Aadmi Party basically represents their aspirations and demands, and though they argue for a change in system, they are not basically against this system, the capitalist system, rather they our out to clean it. In a way, consciously or unconsciously, they are helping the continuation of this oppressive, exploitative social system, because they are actually trying to bring back the confidence of people in general to the present system by cleaning it from corruption and other social ills. However, they are oblivious of the fact that the corruption and criminalization of society, as it is prevalent in this society is a product of particular form of capitalist system existing in our country and as long as the capitalist system will remain in force, the system can be reformed to an extent but the corruption and criminalization cannot be eradicated altogether. We shall not go into the details of analysis of AAP as it is not the aim of our present discussion, which may be taken up in some other discussion in future.
However, the AAP phenomenon has thrown the disenchantment, anger against all the political parties present among the masses into sharp relief. Had the AAP been not there, the BJP would have won the elections as against Congress and everybody would have considered that win as the groundswelling of support towards BJP. However, the remarkable result of AAP has shown that the masses, not only the working class and other toiling masses but also various strata of middle classes including upper strata of it, are very much antagonized with all the political parties, want to build some other organisations rejecting these political parties.
This is the trend which has gradually become very much prominent among the various sections of people. The people are disenchanted, disillusioned and very much aggrieved about all the political parties, because they have seen that these parties have time and again betrayed their faith, all of the parties are corrupt and devoid of any ideology. They have also experienced that all the parties more or less maintain links with the criminal world, without which they will be unable to win elections and capture electoral power. All these things have given rise to apolitical tendencies to a large extent. And as it can be seen from AAP experience, the people are thinking and are trying to form their own organisations , rejecting the old political leaders and the parties.
Among the working class, a similar process is unravelling in front of our eyes, however with some differences which have far reaching consequences. The working class has a long history of struggle against the capitalists, which they fought under the leadership of so-called communist parties, first CPI and then mainly CPI(M). They almost blindly followed the leadership of the party, which was mainly comprised of communists coming from the ranks of petty-bourgeois intelligentsia. They also were inspired by the international communist movement specially by the Russia and China. But, in the eighties and nineties the working class gradually realized from their bitter experiences that the parties and also the unions under whose leadership they fought against the capitalists, have deserted them and crossed over towards the capitalists. Their realization came from the role of the unions and also the role of the parties in helping the capitalists. It was naturally more prominent in those states where the parties formed governments, but everywhere the workers went through a similar experience. Unfortunately, the workers could not comprehend the process of degeneration of old parties and only realised it after the parties fully degenerated. So, the workers not only lost the party under whose guidance they fought till then, but also lost their own union organisations also. These made workers scattered, unorganised. And due to this fact they could not resist the attacks of Globalisation and Liberalisation throughout the whole decades of nineties of the last century.
However, situation began to change slowly from the beginning of century. The workers started fighting out the attacks of Globalisation in the factory plane. Obviously, they could not do so from within the old organisations. For the necessity of struggle they had to build up their own organisations. Learning lessons from the bitter experience of betrayal of old parties, the workers are not only rejecting the old parties, but also building up their own organisations and keeping the reins of those organisations in their own hands. It is true that this trend is growing in an excruciatingly slow pace, but it will grow definitely and this process will not be reverted back. The workers have started resisting the attacks of the capitalists. They have entered this phase only after long and bitter experience of these parties and due to that experience they do not have any belief on these parties. They may still depend on these parties in some cases, but that is because the forces of struggle are still small, and due to that reason the workers cannot believe on their own strength. They still feel that some help from above is necessary without which they will not be able to confront the might of the capitalists, who are very much united and actively helped by the state machinery and old parties. However, as more and more workers will ineviably enter the path of struggle due to the enhanced attacks of the whole capitalist class the workers will gain their own strength and they will not have to depend on some outside forces.
It is beyond any doubt that the working class only has the potential to thwart this tremendous attack of Globalisation and Liberalisation of the capitalists. Among all the classes, only the working class and their brethren in rural India is facing the brunt of these attack all along. Unlike other classes, they have nothing to gain from these ?reform' programmes of the big bourgeoisie. So, they will have to fightback and potentially only the working class has got that strength to combat the might of the big bourgeoisie helped by their imperialist masters. However, that potential can only be realised when the workers will be able to organise themselves, in their own strength shedding dependence on the old parties. That process has started.
AAP and similar parties which are apparently against the established political parties pose a danger in this respect. Though these parties are against the established parties, as they are also part of bourgeoisie, they are not against the policies of that class. Furthermore, the AAP and such parties are trying to win over the masses of workers in their favour, without which they will not be able to combat the established parties in the electoral battle. Due to this reason, AAP is trying to attract the struggling workers, like the workers of Maruti and such factories, within their fold. Due to their apparent neutrality, they may become successful to some extent in their overtures on the workers and may be able to deceive the workers who may tend to depend on such parties. However, the workers who are entering the path of struggle also do strongly feel that no outside forces can be depended upon. So though in ultimate analysis such forces like AAP may not completely thwart the trend of development of organisation of workers, by themselves and under their own control, these parties may slow down the process to an extent. The leading and class conscious workers must combat this possibility.
In the first portion of the present article we have described that the present critical condition of big bourgeoisie is driving them to unleash a fierce onslaught on the workers and toiling masses of this country and also increasing a dangerous tendency of fascisation of the country. However, this same condition is also increasing the possibility of development of the forces which will be able to thwart the onslaught of the big bourgeoisie. Further the crisis will deepen, the workers will face further onslaught and the process of development of workers own organisation and struggle will be intensified. From the struggles of workers further higher organisation of workers will be developed which will help the working class to combat the class policies of the big bourgeoisie. This will also pave the way for the struggle against the possible fascist, undemocratic tendencies of the big bourgeoisie.
We, as communists, must try to understand the inherent tendencies of the society which are taking shape and which will shape the development of class struggle. We should help this process of regeneration of working class movement and help the workers according to our ability so that they advance in the correct course. We cannot devise any separate movement, separate from this course the working class is taking at present. The present situation is such that the economy and politics of this country is standing on crossroads. Possibly a storm is brewing in the horizon in both ways. There are signs of unrest above and also below. We must try to understand the inherent directions which are being shown by the political events and act accordingly.
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