Ominous Signs From The Recent Elections
The results of recent assembly elections, especially of UP assembly election, and events thereafter has become a matter of deep concern not only to the class conscious workers and communists, but also to all democratic people of India. These events are clearly showing some ominous signs of increasing communal polarization and further advancement of fascist forces led by Sangh Parivar and BJP. It is true that the number of seats won by any party in the parliamentary or assembly elections or even the votes garnered should not be always equated with the strength and influence of that party over the masses. There may be many other factors at play like anti-incumbency against ruling party, or fragmentation of opposition votes which may help a party to get majority seats. However, we cannot just ignore the significance of this massive victory of BJP in the state of UP, which is the largest state of India in terms of population on such pretexts. The victory of BJP in UP is significant and has been made further clear by the appointment of Yogi Adityanath, one of its most rabid communal elements, by RSS as the chief minister of the state. Not only he had infamously made provocative and communal statements against Muslims time and again, but also, more importantly, led a militant communal force named Hindu Yuva Vahini which was involved in numerous communal attacks in the recent past. It clearly shows that the Sangh Parivar will further strengthen its policy of aggressive Hindutva by increasing attacks on minorities, especially people of Muslim community and will try to further communalize the Indian society in its endeavor to establish fascist rule in this country.
It is true that the size of victory of BJP in UP election, if not the victory itself, was unexpected. Even the opinion polls which favoured BJP victory could not correctly predict the number of seats ultimately won by BJP. BJP also won majority seats in Uttarakhand. The percentage swing of votes in favour of BJP in Uttarakhand is significant, as BJP got 13.37% votes greater than the previous assembly election of 2012. BJP also gained a toehold in North-East India by forming a government in Manipur. Though majority of seats were won by Congress there, BJP was able to form the government with the help of other parties and also the governor, who was previously a BJP MP. Here also BJP has gained a lot as it increased the number of seats and also the vote share significantly. However, all were not roses for BJP. Shiromani Akali Dal-BJP coalition government lost miserably in Punjab. It is true that the main partner in this coalition was SAD and BJP may claim it was mainly the defeat of SAD, not of the BJP. But, both the seats and vote share of BJP were also decreased. In Goa also vote percentage and seats won by BJP, both decreased with respect to 2012 assembly election, vote swing against BJP being 3%.
However, with respect to 2014 parliamentary elections, the decrease is much more significant. With respect to 2014 parliamentary elections, the vote percentage of BJP in Goa decreased from 54% to 32% -- a huge decrease of 22%. Actually among these five states, except in Manipur, everywhere the vote percentage of BJP has decreased with respect to its vote share of 2014 parliamentary election. In Uttarakhand, it decreased from almost 56% to 46.5%, a decrease of almost 9.5%. In Punjab the vote percentage decreased from 8.7% to 5.4%. Even in Uttar Pradesh, the vote percentage of BJP decreased from 42.6% to 39.7%, a decrease of almost 3%. Despite its victory in the assembly elections, is this a sign of beginning of disenchantment of a section of people about the Modi government?
However, it cannot be denied that, being the most populous state, the massive victory of BJP in UP is important and may influence the future political events of the whole country significantly. How the BJP could clinch such a massive victory, massive at least in terms of number of seats? It is very difficult to pinpoint the exact causes, especially for us when the working class and the toiling masses are disorganized and was absent in the electoral arena as a class, as an organized force. However, it is not difficult to guess that one of the major causes of the victory of BJP is the so called agenda of "Development" of Narendra Modi. It has helped BJP to attract the middle classes cutting across caste boundary. Modi has been able to project himself as a person above the party who is an able administrator, honest and a staunch fighter against corruption. His promises for farm loan waiver and other relief measures like free LPG may also have attracted rural people.
Another important aspect of this election that the parties like SP or BSP has failed to attract the majority people from the castes which had been their main support base in the past. During the opinion poll carried out by NDTV, they collected information about voting pattern across different castes and showed that all the parties polled votes in the same percentage among different castes. It shows that no caste has shown any special affinity to any particular party.
Does it signify the demise of caste based parties and their politics which have ruled the politics of UP for about past four decades? The answer may not be simple. During the period starting from the eighties of the last century, these parties have helped the upper layer of these so-called lower castes, lower in the hierarchy of caste system of Hindu religion, to assert themselves in the politics of the country. It also attracted the poor people of these castes to these parties who thought that their lot will improve once these parties come to power. However, the experience of the governments of these parties have clearly revealed to the masses that neither these parties are interested in abolition of caste oppression nor they are capable or interested to uplift economic conditions of the people of these castes. Not only that, it is also becoming clearer that these parties may even form alliances with the upper castes to remain in power. Definitely in this period with the capitalist development, however slow and incomplete that may be, the economic and social conditions of a section of lower or oppressed castes, improved to some extent. But that also increased their desire or craving for more. On the other hand, the poor and toiling sections also realized from their experiences that none of the party is different in following the anti-people and pro-capitalist policies favoring the rich. These experiences have disillusioned the people of the middle castes and also the Dalits and their attachment with these parties have become weaker. On the other hand, the period of globalization has given rise to a section of aspiring middle class even among the lower castes which is being attracted by the slogan of "Development" of the ruling class parties, especially the "Development" model of Narendra Modi. Growing communalization is another important factor which has gravitated a section of lower castes towards BJP. BJP has been able to polarize on the basis of Hindu identity breaking the barriers of caste.
However, It will be na?ve to conclude that caste based politics is a thing of past and has lost its relevance in the present India. On the contrary, some other recent events are clearly showing that the caste problems are continuing and will continue to influence Indian politics, may be in newer ways. Some dominant castes, like Patels of Gujarat or the Jats of Haryana are getting organized under new slogans of "Reservations". As there is caste oppression in society, the caste problems and divisions on caste lines will definitely continue to influence the politics of India. But probably the established caste based parties like SP or BSP, are losing their relevance. The last parliamentary election and Assembly elections are probably giving indications of this fact.
Another major cause of victory of BJP is that the party has been able to communalize and thus consolidate a large section of people of different communities which broadly fall within the Hindu religion in its favor. Publicly, the party is projecting itself as a party of "Development", of "Development" of all people irrespective of caste or religion ("Sabka Sath Sabka Vikas"), but in a veiled manner, secretively, and meticulously it is continuously propagating communal hatred and organising communal attacks and in this way they have successfully increased communal division everywhere and especially in UP and organized people of different communities which broadly fall within Hindu religion into their fold.
As they had organized people of Hindu communities on the basis of on the slogan Ram Janmbhumi in late eighties, this time they have taken up the slogan of cow slaughter and beef eating to enhance communal division and organize people along communal lines. They are organizing attacks on the Muslim people on the plea of cow slaughter and beef eating and by these attacks on the one hand trying to force the people of religious minorities to surrender to the Hindutva forces and on the other hand, they are organizing the different sections or castes of Hindu people on a communal basis. The result of election shows that the BJP has been able to polarize people of Hindu community cutting across caste division. On the other hand the votes of Muslim community got divided among SP-Cong combine and BSP. In this way they are communalizing the society and building up a fascist force which will act not only against the religious minorities but also the progressive forces and the struggling forces of toiling masses. Not only the UP election, past events all over India is clearly showing this planning of BJP. The BJP has successfully combined the "Development" agenda and hidden communal agenda to draw masses in their favor.
Here, we must note that the BJP has used its stints in governmental power to advance their communal and fascist agenda with great cunningness. They have not deviated from their core ideology of aggressive Hindutva. They may have proceeded with different speed in different periods. But, all the time they have used their governmental power to advance their communal and fascist cause. In the present election also, they have selected Yogi Adityanath as the Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh. He is one of the most communal elements of the Parivar. However, after taking reins of Chief Ministership, Adityanath has shrewdly started talking about "Development", but in the name of development and law and order, has taken such steps which can be used against Muslim community.
One of the important significance of this phase of election that it has strengthened the position of Narendra Modi as a strongman above the party, who is "different" from other corrupt, anti-people politicians and also a "able, honest, pro-people administrator who is on a mission to root out corruption from the society". Already Modi has tried to achieve this position through demonetization drive and has become successful in his planning to an extent. The victory in the assembly election will further strengthen his position. If people place somebody on such a high pedestal, they inevitably cede him an authoritative power, which they will not be able to resist when that will be applied against them. It is definitely helpful for Modi and Sangh Parivar in their fascist design, because such a power will help Modi and Sangh Parivar in their fascist design.
In future, how much they will be able to advance in their planning that still we do not know. But, definitely, sooner or later, the basic contradiction between the capitalists and the workers, between the big landlords and peasants and agricultural labourers, and between the imperialist capital and the people, that is, the basic contradiction between the ruling classes and the toiling masses will come to the fore and will obliterate the division among the toiling people along communal line, and they will become united and defeat the nefarious design of the fascist forces.
The question which must be haunting not only class conscious workers and the communists, but also every democratic and progressive people, what should be done now to oppose the advancement of fascist forces. It should be amply clear from our past experiences that these fascist forces cannot be resisted by struggle within the parliamentary arena and that too by the established so-called secular parliamentary parties. The BJP could come to power due to the disillusionment of the masses about these parties due to their anti-people and so-called secular policies. Most importantly, fascism is basically an extra-parliamentary force which tries to uproot the present democratic structure including the parliamentary structure. So, they mainly operate from outside the parliamentary structure and can be resisted only by struggle outside the parliamentary arena. Such a struggle is beyond the capacity of these parties. The rise of fascist forces can be resisted only by the development of class struggle. It is true that presently the class struggle is at very low ebb. The working class is still completely disorganized and disarrayed. The incipient struggle of the workers can be seen only at the trade union level. However, this is the only force which may resist the fascist forces by organizing the toiling masses on the basis of class issues. Presently the communists should make the leading workers conscious about the danger of the rise of the fascist forces and try to help them to get organized in a platform, so that they can build up a struggle against the anti-worker policies of the government but at the same time build up a struggle against these communal and fascist forces.
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