U.P. Election: Will the Dalit & oppressed Masses' Dreams be Realized!
The results of the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections have brought some sort of a joy and satisfaction in diversely varied sections of society. The result was unexpected. Before the results came out almost the media as a whole was engrossed in establishing through numerous analyses that the only possible outcome is a 'hung' assembly either with the BJP, or with the BSP as the largest party. Ultimately all such assessments came to a nought. After 16 years, a single party, in the form of the BSP, attained absolute majority in U.P.
With that media fever of hung parliament and speculations about possible coalitions gone the media was caught in a new obsession of regarding Mayawati's successful 'social engineering'. Obviously the influential, mainstream media are the mouthpiece of the big capitalists. They make or break stories to serve this class. Hence their glee for Mayawati's BSP making it in U.P. is not for any preference for that party or leader, but because of the emergence of the possibility of formation of a 'stable' govt for the next 5 years in the state. It is not because the capitalists disapprove of or do not instigate the intra-coalition squabbling, govt toppling or horse-trading of MLAs that repeatedly occurred during the last 14 years. It is because at the moment in U.P. they needed a stability of govt. amidst all other social injustices, exploitations, unscrupulous means to ensure that they get a pliable and servile ruling party and its govt with whose unhindered support there may be further favourable conditions for investment and exploitation of profit. So with the BSP coming to power the big capitalist controlled media looked with glistening eyes hoping to rope in another 'regional' ruling political force into their bandwagon of globalisation. The praise for Maya's social engineering was just a prelude to that. Otherwise, why the 'Business' dailies spent so much of their 'costly' space for days on Maya and her win!!
But there was rejoice also in another completely opposite camp which the revolutionary working class elements cannot neglect. The so-called lower castes or especially the Dalits engaged as workers, migrant labourers in different regions of the country are jubilant with BSP's win. For them it is history that for the first time a party of the Dalits has come to power on its own. There is hope amongst these lowermost, oppressed layers of society: Hope of end to disgrace, dishonour and exploitation they have to suffer day-in-and day-out.
So, quite naturally the questions quizzes, which of these is true: the rise of the BSP to the state govt. power of U.P. as another pro-globalisation, pro-liberalization govt. ready to serve the big bourgeois of this country and the imperialist multinationals, Or, does UP elections reveal before us the establishment of a new force in govt. representing the aspiration of the lowermost, exploited masses of our society, the Dalits, the lower castes...?
At first, let us get into some of the important facts of the recent election:
Percentage-wise votes (in bracket) & Seat-wise Break up of main political parties, from 1989 to 2007:
1989 | 1991 | 1993 | 1996 | 2002 | 2007 | |
BSP | 13 (09.4) | 12 (09.4) | 69 (11.3) | 97 (11.2) | 98 (23.19) | 206 (30.46) |
SP | - - | - - | 109 (17.9) | 109 (21.8) | 143 (25.43) | 97 (25.45) |
BJP | 57 (11.6) | 221 (31.5) | 178 (33.3) | 174 (32.5) | 88 (20.12) | 50 (16.93) |
INC | 94 (27.9) | 46 (17.4) | 28 (15.0) | 33 (08.4) | 25 (09.00) | 22 (08.56) |
Source: Behind the BSP victory, VIVEK KUMAR, EPW June 16 2007, Page 2237
Caste wise break up of winning candidates of two main contending Parties:
Caste | BSP 206? | Elected | Contested | SP 97? | Elected |
Dalit | 62 | 93 | 13 | ||
Brahmin | 51 | 86 | 7 | ||
OBC | 51 | 110 | 27 | ||
of which Yadav | 4 | 17 | |||
Thakur | 18 | 38 | 22 | ||
Muslim | 24 | 61 | 21 | ||
Others Non-OBC | 0 | 14 | 7 |
The BJP was this time fully backed by all the Sangh Parivar organization and RSS. In fact after some important wins in the recently held civic election in U.P. in end 2006 the Hindutva forces were upbeat expecting good performance in the assembly elections. One thing they forgot that the real strength of SP and BSP lay in the rural area, and not is Kasbas or towns and urban areas where BJP has it influence. On the other hand the highly communal campaign of Yogi Adityanth and his candidates in and around Gorakhpur also yielded only one seat in that region. Then the secretly distributed communal hatred brewing CDs for which the BJP was pulled up by the Election Commission, that by its repulsive pictures on cow slaughter etc was not only meant to win over Hindu upper caste votes but also the OBCs like Yadavs (very sensitive about cows). It also did not click. In fact BJP was even defeated in its strongholds like Ayodhya, and Haidergarh which was present BJP president Rajnath Singh's constituency. There are assessments that because of the BSP's Brahmin candidates many of the BJP candidates were humbled in their bastions. As the changes in vote % suggest, out of the 3% or more decrease of votes for BJP most of it have possibly gone to the BSP.
The percentage of SP votes have remained intact which is also corroborated by reports that especially the Yadav vote bank of SP has remained solidly with it. In fact there is a small % increase (0.02%) in votes polled by SP. Still its no: of seats decreased from previous terms 143 to 97, a loss off almost 50 seats. This can only mean that in many seats it lost by smaller margins and where it won there were their strongholds and it won with greater margins. Facts also substantiate this by showing that the SP has been in No. 2. Position in as many as 172 seats out of which is in 52 constituencies it lost by less than 5000 votes.
Both the Congress and BJP, the main national parties have been side lined. The BJP has been dumped to its insignificant position it had about two decades back. The congress has once again remained rejected in U.P., where up to mid-eighties it was the party that was able to assemble a 'rainbow coalition' of different castes and communities, especially from upper-castes, Dalits and Muslims, contending singly for power. The post- emergency rise of Janata Party govt, later the Janata Dal, the 1989 Mandal Commission social unrest were a series of set backs that led to the erosion and rupture of that upper caste led grand coalition that served the main big bourgeoisie's and landlords' party of this country. The Congress has not been able to recover from that. Seat wise statistics show that apart from the 50 seats it won the BJP was second in 72 seats, while Congress who bagged 22 seats were second only in 15 constituencies.
The BSP's advancement in UP has remained unabated spread widely over different regions of the big state. This time also it secured victories in all regions of U.P. ? Rohilkhand, Porvanchal, Western U.P., Awadh or Central U.P., Lower Doab and Bundelkhand. From Porvanchal, which sends 104 MLAs, it secured 50 seats and even from Western UP region dominated by peasant proprietor class of Jats where it is comparatively weak it secured as many as 29 seats out of 67. In the late 80s and early 90s the BSP's zone of strength remained confined to Bundelkhand in the South and the intensely feudal upper caste Poorvanchal of Eastern U.P. region. But since mid - 1990s influence spread every to all regions (Jaffrelote ? Region wise vote share of BSP in The Bahujan Samajwadi Party In North India: No Longer Just A Dalit Party.)
Considering the different communities of the society it is once again seen that the Dalit vote bank has overwhelmingly voted in favour of BSP. The party won 62 out of 89 reserved seats i.e. almost 70% of the seats and garnered, as estimated by some writers, 77% of the Dalit votes. Earlier it used to win only 22% to 25% of the reserved seats (source: EPW June 16, 2007). Out of 110 tickets given to OBCs about 50% have won among which there are 8 Yadavs and 27% of non ? Yadav OBCs have voted for BSP. From the Muslim candidates: out of 61 tickets given a record number of 29 Muslim candidates have won on BSP ticket. 17% of Muslims voted for the BSP. The not so large percentages of votes from the upper castes have also contributed significantly. Thus the BJP bagged not only Dalit and Muslim votes but it got a significant number, of votes of non-Yadav OBCs, mostly the more backward OBCs often referred to as the Most Backward Classes (MBCs) and upper castes specially Brahmins.
In fact BSP was also no.2 in position in as many as 107 seats of which 47 were lost by less than 5000 votes and it was no. 3 in 59 seats. It must not be forgotten that all this has been achieved by the BSP with the slogan of not Bahujan Samaj but Sarvajan Samaj. Not with the Upper-caste bashing ?Tilak, taraju aur talwar ? inko maro Juta char? but with ?Tilak, taraju aur talwar sab ho gaya haathi par sawar? or ?Brahman shankh bajayegaa, haathi chaltaa jaayega!?
The 2007 electoral contest was mainly between the SP and the BSP and the polarization centred on those parties was so much that the other caste-based smaller parties were swept sway. Thus the Kurmi (UP's second largest OBC community) representing Apna Dal of Sone Lal Patel with which BJP made an electoral alliance drew blank. Veni Prasad Verma another much discussed Kurmi candidate of the same party and dissident from SP, expected to win from Ayodhya, lost. The Rajbhar Party of Om Prakash Yadav too faced the same fate.
In spite of the above mentioned trends that came to surface during the recent elections, out of which the defeat of SP and more noticeably through its campaign for Sarbajan Samaj instead of Bahujan Samaj the emergence of BSP as successful organizer of not only Dalit votes but votes from varied sections of society was seen, the voter turnout did not vindicate the election to be called spontaneous mass mobilization. The total percentage of votes polled remained at only 46% inspite of Election Commission's stringent supervision which did play a role in ensuring a violence free, comparatively smooth election process that U.P. generally never witnessed.
The Factors That Led To This
Several important incidents of the states political and socio-economic situation that emerged in the last one and a half decades is responsible for the present developments. These have in a way acted as the immediate cause, although the real underlying causes lie somewhere else in the socio-economic reality of the society:
The period of continuing stalemate of failing coalition governments from 1993 to 2002 was an important experience for the parties and its followers. In 1993 the SP-BSP coalition govt supported by the congress, the first chance of OBCs and Dalits coming together in a govt did not last long. The conflict of extending one's base reached its climax and in 1995 Mayawati withdrew support to form her own govt with BJP's support, but that also for only 6 months. Then BJP played the game, toppling the Mayawati govt. President's rule was imposed. After 1996 election once again there were attempts of the main emergent forces BSP and SP to form a coalition govt. But none wanted to forego the chief minister's post, and after 5 months an unprecedented agreement was made between BSP and BJP with the condition that the chief minister would be made from each party for 6 months in succession. That coalition also did not last. The Kalyan Singh led BJP govt remained with the support of defections; and three different Chief Minister's of BJP took charge in a row to satisfy a hugely expanded 98-member cabinet of turncoats and power hungry opportunists. After the 2002 election once again the BSP and BJP formed another opportunist coalition govt. Once again with disputes of BJP MLAs not getting ministerial posts, the game of defections started, but Mayawati was not successful. BJP switched support to Mulayam Singh, many independents and defectors also shifted to the SP's support. Another SP govt came up based on defections and BJP's tacit support.
Thus for 14 long years no single party got absolute majority, no coalition govt. had any common agenda other than forming a govt by any means and getting the cushy ministerial posts. Defectors and purchasable independent MLA's ruled the roost. Still no govt could complete full 5 years term in office. The roots of the failure of emergence of a single party with majority seats or the instability of coalitions lay in the socio-economic realty of the state and in the politics of those contending forces.
U.P, with the highest percentage of Brahmins in the country, has a caste wise break up as follows:
Upper caste ? 12%
Muslim ? 20%
Dalit ? 23%
OBCs ? 45% (Jaffrelote ? Tehelka 26.05.07) In the midst of such a reality the main contenders to the state power BJP, BSP and the SP remained consolidated in their respective cast-based vote banks each in opposition to the other:
BJP? Mainly upper caste, and sections of non-Yadav 'lower' OBC's like Lodhs, Kurmis.
BSP? The Dalits
SP? Mainly the Yadav along with some other OBC's
But this was not sufficient to garner adequate number of MLAs to unilaterally form a govt. Neither, because of the strong inter-caste enmity and particular caste-based identity of these parties which they have acquired, the coalition of two or more opposing caste-based parties could sustain. The deadlock over the formation of a stable govt. in the state from 1993 to 2007 reflected this limitation and impasse created by particular caste-based vote banks.
Consequently these electoral forces seeking to achieve their aim of forming govt. started more and more to extend their influence beyond their traditional caste based vote banks. Here we will see some instances of this in case of the SP and the BSP the main contending forces in post-Mandal, post-Babri-Masjid U.P.
The SP, since 1998, started promoting Amar Singh, its Thakur leader as its general secretary and started giving tickets to Thakur (Kshatriya) candidates drawing them away from the BJP. Of course it had its repercussions with the Brahmins further distancing and becoming anti-SP, though this is only one reason for such reaction of them.
The BSP also on the other hand tried to overcome it problem of getting restricted within the Dalit community vote bank. Here it may be quite relevant to mention a similar problem that Ambedkar faced in the decade of 50s of last century. Quoting from Christophe Jaffreslote's The Silent Revolution ?The first general elections after Independence in 1951-52 brought no improvement in the Scheduled Castes Federation's (SCF's) fortunes. It won only two Lok Sabha seats, one in Hyderabad and other in the province of Bombay. He now realized that the schedules castes would never be able to win power alone. The SCF had certainly sharpened their political consciousness, but it had also cut them off from other social groups and possible allies. In one of his last meetings in Nagpur in October 1956, he was to die two months later, Ambedkar suggested that the SCF should be dissolved and a new party formed instead. He invited party workers to forge links with leaders from non-Dalit communities? (The Silent Revolution pg. 106). The BSP was also not averse to this, not only prior to the latest 2007 elections as many analysis have put it, but since the last decade. During the 1996 assembly election Dalit candidates were less than 29% of the total no: of party candidates in UP, whereas OBCs were more than 24% and Muslims 17.5% and the upper castes of same percentage. In the 1999 Lok Sabha elections Kanshi Ram adopted a policy to nominate candidates in proportion to the caste and community composition of society. Accordingly 12% tickets were distributed to 'Savarnas'. Out of 85 Candidates, 17 Muslim (20%), 20 Dalits (23.5%), 38 OBC's (45%) and 10 Upper-caste (12%) ? 5 Brahmins and 5 Rajputs were fielded. In 2002, 38 tickets were given to Brahmins.
So this process was being initiated more and more by both SP and BSP as the coalitions at the top failed often referred to as the ?Chipping-away? game ? winning over other section of people beyond their traditional vote Banks.
In the phase of 2003 to 2005 this culminated through a number of incidents that provided the impetus in favour of the BSP. After toppling the BSP Govt. with the help of dissidents and power hungry defectors the Mulayam govt was formed during this period with the tacit support of the BJP. The Yadav dominated state machinery and governance with it nepotism and intimidating nature thrust on all other sections of people, often called the ?Yadavisation? of the state, came to the forefront. BJP MLA turned speaker Keshri Nath Tripathi's unscrupulous defence of Mulayam govt's horse-trading exposed further the BJP's connivance and put the Brahmin Sections in further anti-SP, anti-BJP position. The rule of the Yadav's in lieu of SP govt pushed the poorer OBCs ? about 74 OBC category castes like Rajbhars, Nais, Mauryas, Kushwahs, Sainis, Nishads..., who have lost their traditional occupation and had no access to power away, from and against the SP, and nearer to the Dalits.
Amidst this situation BSPs electoral strategy was clearly seen in one utterance of Mayawati in 2005: ?The upper castes will not cast their votes in favour of (The) Bahujan Candidate. But the Bahujan caste voters should transfer their votes totally in favour of (the) upper-caste candidates in every constituency where they are contesting on (the) BSP ticket, though in such constituencies the upper castes will not vote en-masse for the upper caste candidate contesting on BSP ticket. But in the process even if (the) the upper caste BSP candidate get 2 to 3% of the upper caste votes, the BSP as a party can enhance its tally from the present by 50 to 60 seats. This will give the BSP a chance to form a majority Govt. for the full five-year term in the State.? (Sudha Pai: Process in Uttar Pradesh, Hindu 22.05.2007)
Thus with this aim since 2005 BSP started mobilizing Brahmins, Kshatriyas and other upper -Castes with more vigour. ?Brahmin Jodo Sammelan? was organized across the state with a specific membership drive, which culminated in the ?Brahman Maha Rally? on 9th June 2005 in Lucknow. ?Bhaichara Baraho Committees? where also constituted by the BSP in each assembly constituency, in many cases consisting of upper-caste and Dalit office bearers together. The ultimate turn out of a percentage of these upper caste votes did play a significant role in the results as has been seen. And most probably big sections among their new supporters of BSP are the lower or poorer classes of the upper-castes. This is confirmed in a way by repeated pronouncements of the new incumbent Chief Minister Mayawati immediately after taking responsibility. She talked of her govt's support for reservation of economically weaker sections of upper castes ? a measure intended to further consolidate the newfound supporters in her favour.
Lastly another popular imagination about Mayawati that she is a strong-handed administrator who doesn't care for the big shots of bureaucracy or who does not shy away from punishing the Dons who play with the lives of the people also put her in a better light compared to Mulayam Govt's corruption, misrule & bullying.
Thus Mayawati and her BSP has been able to rise to the occasion utilizing the winds of change that was emerging in the electoral front. The support of upper castes, deprived poor OBCs and Muslims, not to mention the already existing Dalit base it had, converged on the only feasible alternative to the SP-Yadav misrule. Many Dalits and other lower caste people are joyous in anticipation and hope from the new Dalit party govt.
But Questions Remain
But all this is about electoral politics ? the politics of winning votes to achieve govt power. For that Mayawati didn't even need an election manifesto nor did she elaborate any programme for eradication of the problem of the Dalit, lower castes, minorities or the upper-caste-poor if she came to power. As Kanshi Ram in Aug 1997 said when there was an uneasy coalition Govt. of BJP and BSP in power ?My aim is that the BSP should move forward. At any given point, I'll enter into a tactical alliance with another party if I feel it will strengthen the BSP. And it is what I have done in the past... We entered into an understanding with the BJP last year to increase the base of the BSP and when we feel we are not benefiting any longer we'll end it... I'm only looking for a suitable ladder.? (Times of India. 21 Aug 1997 ? Jaffrelote.... pg 420)
Then also it was electoral politics and govt power at the centre. A couple of weeks later BSP withdrew from that BJP-BSP govt as Kalyan Singh issued an order obstructing the implementation of the SC/ST (Prevention of Atrocities) Act. But from the same Kanshi Ram's BSP, defectors along with others from congress propped up the Kalyan Singh govt, falling prey to the allurement of ministerial berths. The BJP govt continued on its own without the BSP. So the 'suitable ladder' that Kanshi Ram was looking for has time and again proved to be slippery indeed, creating only an illusion of moving forward. It is this ladder to power through tactical alliances and govt formation, which deviates and erases from consciousness the social and economic roots oppression of the poor and oppressed. Mayawati's calculations of '2 to 3%' upper caste votes' that will yield '50 to 60 seats' more, also speaks of that electoral 'ladder' only.
Will this 'Dalit' party govt bring an honourable life to the socially oppressed and exploited, Dalits and lower castes? Will it bring education, health, and employment to them? Will the crores of Bhangis still carrying the traditional occupation of carrying human soil be relieved of that detesting occupation and social ostracism? Will the Dalits and lower castes be given land seizing them from the upper casts landlords or new OBC exploiters? Will the impoverished masses of the eastern district of Sonbhadra, Chandauli, Ballia be saved from their life mired in famine and hopelessness? Will the masses of the poor from all communities, evicted from their traditional occupation and pauperised by govt polices like globalisation, get respectable jobs and living?
The Dalits And The Poor: What Will They Do
An average Dalit has remained where he had been for ages. Most of the agricultural workers in the State are Dalits and the most backward castes. The land holding population among the Dalits is less than 8% while among upper castes it is close to 65%, 32% of Dalits are agricultural labourers.
In this context it is quite relevant to note that the OBCs and the Dalits class interests are clearly antagonistic in some region of Uttar Pradesh! While in East UP the OBCs and the schedule castes labourers have a common enemy: the old elite made of upper caste landlords. Elsewhere, the schedule caste people are often landless labourers or cultivators with a very small amount of land who work for OBC farmers. While conflicts about the wages of agricultural labourers and disputes over land ownership have always been acute, they become more frequent when both groups, the Dalit and OBCs, became more assertive after the 1993 elections.
These bones of contention partly explained the proliferation of 'atrocities' often caused by the upper castes particularly Rajputs (the major landlords in the Eastern U.P) who were perturbed by the Dalits' increasing political power. Then there was also rising conflicts between Dalits and the OBC's, one of the main reasons for BSP's withdrawal of support from SP Govt. in 1995 was because of atrocities of especially Yadav against the Dalits about which Kanshi Ram Repeatedly demand demanded protection of Dalits.
55% of Dalit are employed in unorganised sector. 33% of Dalits are illiterate and only 12% has education above secondary level while less than 10% of upper case population is illiterate and more than 50% has education above secondary level.
Then there are the poor OBCs, the Rajbhars, Kushwahas, Nishads... and also the poor from upper castes who are reeling under the double impact of backwardness existing in rural areas and globalisation policies.
Over and above this, studies of economic positions of the Indian states even by the pro-globalisation, pro-reform experts, have shown that inequality has increased at a higher rate among the people in the poorest states of the country like Rajasthan, M.P., Orisa, Bihar & U.P. Especially this has been found to increase during the post-reform period of 1993 to 1998. The Eastern District of Sonbhadra, Chandauli, Ghazipur, Ballia of U.P. all bordering Bihar have shown repeated incidents of famine and poverty afflicted masses mired in backwardness.
Amidst such a socio-economic condition of deprivation and exploitation which exist even 60 years after Independence the Dalits, lower castes, the poor and toiling masses of all caste and communities are waiting with hope that ?Behn? Mayawati will look after their long standing problems.
On the other side are lurking the big bourgeois, the ruling class of this country, who want the Dalit messiah to shed off whatever social and economic conflict and struggle she still talked off in the name of Bahujan Samaj and be part of the ruling camp for their further exploitation that globalisation seeks today.
The question is: which way will Mayawati and her govt go?
When questioned about these hopes and expectations of the oppressed, Mayawati said in an interview ?If I could get the sarva samaj to vote united for me, why can I not advance their socio-economic interests together? I am certain I can do that.? At another point, when reference was made to Kanshi Ram's utterances that Dalit samaj or Bahujan Samaj should develop four areas namely, agriculture, trade and industry, politics and government, the firebrand anti-upper caste leader interrupted and said ?We are not pursuing a Bahujan Samaj agenda now. Now the principal focus will be the welfare of sarva samaj. Of course, my govt will have special programmes for uplifting the weaker sections, but at the same time, there will also be a focus on the economically backward sections among the upper caste communities....? ?I would like to see Uttar Pradesh that the common man of the state wants to see, a state where the people can lead a peaceful life and improve their socio-economic status.? (Frontline Vol.24 Issue: 10)
However much Behnji now wants to put it in the name of Sarvajan Samaj or anything else the cause of the poorest, the Dalits and other oppressed cannot progress if caste oppression and the exploitation of upper caste and rich OBC castes existing on the basis of agrarian relations is not uprooted from society. For this all the oppressed and exploited sections must move towards building a huge army to challenge the oppressors who are ruling this system. The real welfare of sarva samaj, of the toilers of all communities cannot be achieved without a united fight of all the Dalits and the poor against the exploiters in villages & cities. Otherwise, as one upper caste middle class person put it ?Brahmins are not interested in Swabhiman, they need the satta (power). They had it when congress ruled, then when BJP ruled and they have it now also. The Dalits wants Swabhiman, they only want their Behnji to be the CM.?
This statement shows dangerous signs, and Dalits and other oppressed people, and all oppressed classes can see too ? in an assembly where their party got majority, Dalits are a sheer minority. Not only that, do these numbers mean anything ? when the administration, the state machinery, the 'sacred' laws and etcetera ? all these are geared to serve the upper strata of the society? Can any advanced conscious Dalit worker overlook that? Can they overlook the Fact that Bahujan and Sarva-Samaj must mean different things, because otherwise those from the upper strata would not have lent their support for BSP! And the upper castes, landlords wouldn't have supported a labourers' party! Then, what is the future? The old rulers will carry on! Will the Dalits and other oppressed people and all oppressed classes and communities tolerate that!
In this context let us add another point from an unprompted conversation of several industrial workers in a site near Delhi just after the news of BSP's election-victory spread. Muslims, Dalits, a few Caste Hindus? all were there. They were unanimous in an assessment that the new govt administration would be less atrocious; a reasonably democratic atmosphere would be there? etc. Our question is: Will the workers and other oppressed people will limit themselves within just 'enjoying' this relatively free atmosphere? Will they be satisfied with just that? OR, will the workers and other toiling masses and all oppressed communities take the opportunity of this 'relative freedom'? Will they prepare themselves for building up new struggles, new organisations of themselves, and take the full advantage of this 'democracy'? This is the crux.
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