Rumbling of a Turbulent Era
Revolution in China in 1949, Cultural Revolution in the '60s as well as simultaneous spurt of workers' & peasants' movements - those were the last war cries of the first march of the international working class towards socialism.
Thereafter, for nearly 40 years, they had the history of marching backward - degeneration & betrayal of the old Communist Parties in all the countries - fall of Russia & East European Block in late '80s - & they found themselves lay bare in front of the all out vicious attacks of the global capitalism. Even the theory also surfaced, "There is no alternative (TINA) to Capitalism". At the other side, finally & most importantly, no big crisis of global capital was also visible since last 60 years.
Then, a tinkling of the beginning of the end of this whole era started to be heard since 2008 - that thru' eruption of global financial crisis. Though since 2009, most of the global media controlled by international capital went hoarse to prove that the crisis was over, facts revealed from government documents are speaking otherwise; it is now established that far from attaining pre-2008 status, steps taken by almost every "advanced" countries since then have further embroiled themselves in deeper crisis, as well as, the nature of the crisis is also transforming rapidly. Let us look into this phase in brief:
due to destruction of enormous "fictitious assets" during this crisis, a good number of giant financial institutions became bankrupt; at the same time, international industrial capitalists also faced an unprecedented recession;
to handle the situation, during mid-2009, governments of the imperialist countries started bailing out trillions of dollars to rescue these institutions & to spend for the economic recovery;
again, this particular step of draining out such an enormous amount of money from the government coffer led to these governments becoming alarmingly debt-ridden. This money they had procured from public purse by way of issuing "Government Bonds" etc & also by way of taking loans from giant banks. In the way, the amount of debt has been sky-rocketed to such a level that almost all these governments are now on the verge of bankrupt;
under this circumstance, these governments, controlled by the international capital, have decided to transfer the burden of this crisis to the working class. So, since 2009-2010, series of draconian attacks began - curtailment in social security spending, particularly in health-education-child welfare etc, job cut in public sector, wage-cut of the workers, curbing the right of pension etc. It is now evident from data available that thru' these steps, i e, by way further sharpening of exploitation on the working class, these governments have planned to extract more or less the same amount of money that have been spent to combat the crisis.
at the other end, to resist these attacks, workers-students & youths of most of these countries are continually hitting the roads - the level of protests that we are now witnessing almost everyday, have not been seen since last 40 years. Though the media in our country is remaining more-or-less mum over the issue, the bourgeoisie media of Europe & America are failing to black it out. Every detail of these movements is spreading like wildfire across the globe thru' internet.
All these points have been discussed in a bit detail in the article "Crisis, Its Impact & Workers Fight Back" in the June-July-August, 2011 issue of FAPP. Here, we'll concentrate only on a particular aspect. The fact is that, since almost last 70 years, there was an unspoken truce/collaboration among the ruling classes vis-?-vis the working class in the imperialist countries - on the basis of providing some additional benefits & facilities for the working population in these countries, provided at the cost of intensified imperialist exploitation all over the rest of the world.
Based on this truce, they were being able to contain workers' revolt in their own countries during this long period - had been able to create the traitor, opportunist, white-collar section among the workers, who took hold of the leadership of the unions. Communist parties also became degenerated.
Today, the primary foundation of the whole arrangement based on this truce is heading towards collapse. The whole capitalism has fallen into such a crisis that it can no more allow this arrangement. The era of providing some relief to the working class in these countries is over; unleashing one after another draconian attacks on them proves this fact. It is also apprehended that these attacks would continue at least till 2020. So, the era of class collaboration is going to be over, & the era of class struggle is entering into the arena.
It would not be irrelevant to make a comment here. There had been many reasons behind the defeat of the 1st phase journey of the international proletariat towards socialism & it requires thorough-going & deeper study & analysis to pinpoint these reasons. However, subject to that, we may conclusively say one thing - that one of the primary reasons of this defeat was the failure of revolutions in the advanced countries, caused primarily due to this truce/collaboration among classes in these countries. And, as because imperialism at that time, had been able to halt the revolution in the advanced countries, revolutions of the backward countries had no other option, but to tread the disastrously perilous & unequal journey & finally led to be defeated.
Now, the question that must arise is, whether the collapse of this truce would be temporary in nature, or would it be permanent? Would it be able to regain its former position, once the current phase of crisis would be over?
Here, we must acknowledge that the particular step of curtailment of social expenditure, thru' which the truce has collapsed, is in itself again becoming the biggest hindrance to unfurl the scope of recovery of economy in a capitalist way. In the face of demonic economic onslaught, the purchasing power of the working population is dwindling more & more everyday. So, while the governments are day-dreaming to recover the economy by way of expansion of demands in internal market, in real life it is being & also would be more remote with every newer attack on the working class. Even, a good number of Bourgeoisie Economists, including Joseph Stiglitz, the Nobel Laureate, are now recognizing this.
So, it seems that the possibility of the return of the old truce is remote. And, this is the reason for which it seems that the rumblings that we are now hearing from Europe & America, is the herald of a new turbulent era - harbingers of the marching of the working class of advanced capitalist countries towards class struggle, class organization & finally, towards revolution.
Before ending, preliminary comments on some changes in world political scenario. It is now the established fact that during last twenty years, the domination of USA in world economy is diminishing, & has further deteriorated during present phase of crisis. Since 2009, it has doled out billions of dollars to rescue the bankrupt financial institutions & also in the name of economic revival. As a result, US government itself is now on the verge of becoming bankrupt - to save from the situation, measures of curtailment of expenditure in social sector began since 2010. In addition, Quantitative Easing (QE) mechanism has also been implemented. But, even after 3 rounds of QE by central banks, it is found that situation has not altered. On the other hand, unemployment is rising rapidly; workers are hitting roads on a regular basis.
At this moment, overall economic condition of US is very precarious. Since last nearly 40 years, state economy has functioned on deficit budgeting. This deficit has been managed either by "printing" money, or by selling "Bonds" (like "Kishan Vikash Patra" of our country) to people/investment companies. Money procured thru' "Bonds" had already enhanced debt amount. Now, due to the impact of crisis & subsequent bailing out of the financial institutions, both the Budget Deficit & Government Debt of US have increased enormously; and, even after reduction of social expenditure to a huge extent, debt could not be reduced to a "tolerant level". In all probability, situation is heading towards the point when US government would no more be granted debt, be it from financial institutions, or from public.
At the other end, once again, another new polarization among the international capitalist forces has started to surface. BRICS (Brazil, India, China and South Africa) countries, especially China, are advancing economically. A new clout between these countries & the imperialist forces of Europe is developing. In lieu of the so-called "Unipolar World", a new anti-US axis is slowly emerging, in which though European imperialism is going to play the leading role, BRICS is also going to be a party into it. So, even though US is still remaining no 1 in the military prowess, its economic prowess is diminishing rapidly.
From here, the proletariat must take note of the point that the inter-imperialist contradictions, which were not much visible since post- World War II, is again coming to the surface & it would further intensify the aspects of the crises. So naturally, the analysis of Lenin regarding inter-imperialist contradictions & its giving way to imperialist war as the inevitable phenomenon in the era of imperialism is once again, going to be proved, may be in a newer form.
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